Citigroup Analysts Outline Expected Dip for Macau Gaming in Second Quarter 2026

Key Forecast Details from the Report

Gross gaming revenue is expected to reach MOP$61.0 billion during the same period, marking the lowest quarterly total since the first quarter of 2025, while EBITDA margins are projected to contract by 1.5 percentage points to approximately 25.8 percent, and these numbers reflect adjustments for seasonal events plus shifts in player behavior that analysts have tracked through recent reporting cycles.

The forecast arrives in July 2026, a time when operators and regulators continue to monitor post-pandemic recovery patterns, and the Citigroup team emphasizes that market participants have already incorporated negative sentiment into current valuations, which leaves room for a potential rebound once the second quarter concludes.

Drivers Behind the Projected Decline

The football World Cup stands out as a primary factor because it tends to divert attention and spending away from casino floors during peak viewing periods, while hold rates, which measure the percentage of wagers retained by casinos after payouts, have moved into territory that reduces overall profitability even when gross revenue remains stable, and these elements combine to produce the steepest quarterly drop since the industry reopened following pandemic restrictions.

Observers note that similar patterns appeared in prior major sporting events, where temporary shifts in visitor focus created measurable pressure on EBITDA, yet the current projection also accounts for broader macroeconomic conditions that have affected high-roller segments across multiple Asian gaming jurisdictions.

Expected Rebound in Later Quarters

Despite the anticipated softness in the second quarter, the same analysts anticipate a strong rebound during the third and fourth quarters of 2026, driven by a robust events calendar that includes several large-scale conventions, entertainment productions, and promotional periods designed to attract both mass-market visitors and premium players, and they point to historical data showing quick recoveries once major sporting distractions subside.

Industry participants have seen comparable cycles in previous years where a single weak quarter gave way to stronger performance once the calendar shifted toward higher-traffic periods, and the Citigroup report highlights that operators with diversified offerings across multiple properties stand positioned to capture a larger share of that expected upswing.

Market Context and Valuation Implications

Negative sentiment surrounding the second-quarter outlook has already been priced into share values of major Macau operators, which means further downside surprises remain limited unless actual results deviate significantly from the forecast, and this dynamic allows investors to focus instead on forward indicators such as hotel occupancy rates and flight bookings into the region for the second half of the year.

Data compiled by multiple research houses shows that Macau’s gaming sector has demonstrated resilience through previous periods of volatility, with total industry EBITDA recovering to pre-pandemic levels in several recent quarters, and the current projection fits within that longer-term pattern of quarterly fluctuations tied to external events rather than structural weakness.

Conclusion

The Citigroup analysis provides a clear snapshot of expected conditions for Macau’s gaming industry through the middle of 2026, anchored by specific EBITDA and GGR targets plus margin compression linked to the World Cup and hold-rate challenges, while also underscoring the potential for recovery once the events calendar strengthens later in the year, and market participants continue to track these forecasts alongside operational updates from individual concessionaires.